Estimating the risk of environmental contamination by forest users in African Swine Fever endemic areas

Table 3 Extrapolation of the expected number of yearly African Swine Fever (ASF) environmental contamination events in 5 European countries in which ASF is endemic

Country	Country area (km²)	Forest area (%)	Population density (people/m²)	Population density in rural areas (people/km²)	Expected no. of ASF contaminations per year
Country	Country area (km²)	Forest area (%)	Population density (people/m²)	Population density in rural areas (people/km²)	No supplemental feeding	With supplemental feeding
Estonia	45,340	56.0	30.6	10.2	1938	5397
Latvia	64,570	54.9	30.6	10.0	2703	7527
Lithuania	65,290	35.1	44.6	15.0	1748	4869
Poland	312,690	30.9	124.0	54.6	7380	20,551
Romania	238,400	30.1	83.8	40.3	5471	15,235

Extrapolations were derived from the results of a spatially-explicit simulation model based on a 50 km² study area, and provided for the scenarios with and without wild boar artificial feeding

ISSN: 1751-0147