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Table 2 Outputs of the simulations (10,000 iterations) of the Paratuberculosis survey model with 6000 of 24,218 dairy herds tested.

From: Economic Aspects of Disease Monitoring with Special Reference to Bovine Paratuberculosis

 

Percentiles

Variable

Minimum

5th

50th

95th

Maximum

Number of infected herds in population

20

37

48

60

75

Number of infected herds tested

2

7

12

18

26

Number of animals tested/herd

1

5

12

24

135

Number of infected animals/herd tested

1

1

1

2

10

Number of infected animals/herd detected

0

0

1

1

8

Number of infected herds detected

0

2

6

11

21

Herd sensitivity (1 positive)

0%

18%

50.5%

83%

100%

Herd specificity (1 positive)

91.8%

92.4%

93.0%

93.5%

94.2%

Number of non-infected herds tested

5974

5982

5988

5993

5998

Number of non-infected animals tested

71688

71784

71856

71916

71976

Number of false positive herds

339

381

413

445

486

False positive:true positive ratio

18

36

70

215

486

Predictive value of positive herd test

0.03%

0.14%

0.51%

4.04%

99.5%

Predictive value of negative herd test

99.2%

99.7%

99.8%

99.9%

99.99%

Cost/infected herd detected (NOK)

256,240

488,822

899,791

2,710,965

5,448,500